Questions & Answers

Ridership

How many riders are expected and how many passengers are forecast to be diverted from airplanes and cars?

The most recent ridership forecasts for the California High-Speed Train Project estimate between 88 – 117 million passengers annually by 2030 for the entire 800-mile high-speed train network connecting Sacramento, the San Francisco Bay Area, Central Valley, Los Angeles, Orange County, the Inland Empire, and San Diego. Of the 33 million air trips forecast to be made in the year 2030, over a third or 12 million would be attracted to high-speed trains, bringing the level of air traffic in the state back to the levels of 2000, slightly higher than it is today. In other words most of the growth in air traffic would be diverted, leaving airport capacity for international and out-of-state flights.

Of the 911 million auto travelers forecast in 2030 to make trips between the 14 regions, about 6% or 50 million would be attracted to high-speed trains. Within the regions that have several stations (Los Angeles Basin, the Bay Area, and San Diego County) high-speed trains will attract another 25 million auto trips, less than 1% of the local urban area auto travel.

Who produced the ridership forecasts and how were they developed?

Investment quality forecasts of ridership and revenue for the high-speed train system were developed for the Bay Area to Central Valley Program EIR/S by Cambridge Systematics (CS), a nationally respected transportation economics and forecasting specialist, over a period of two years (2006-7) through an independent $2 million contract funded and managed by the Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). The Authority partnered with the MTC, providing the basic inputs on high-speed train operations and fares.

Cambridge Systematics (CS) prepared a detailed (4,667-zone) model of California’s current and future population, employment, household characteristics, highway network, air and rail services, and transit systems following current best practices and methodology.

CS conducted over 3,170 state-of-the-art surveys with California travelers about recent trips and their valuations of travel time, cost, and reliability and combined that information with data from 3,700 similar recent surveys from Caltrans, MTC, and the Southern California and Sacramento Association of Governments to help develop specific California-based forecasts of diversion of trips from air, auto, or other rail service to high-speed trains.

As is standard, the model predicts future trip making from forecasts of population and employment, and then looks at each future trip by household. The model compares the travel time for each mode (both in the vehicle, and getting to, from, into, and out of stations/airports), the time between departures, the cost of that trip, the number of cars available, the household’s income, how many people are traveling together, the reason for the trip, and a number of other statistically significant indicators, and from this predicts how many trips will be taken on each mode.

The accuracy of the model was first checked and improved by using it to forecast current travel in the state, obviously without high-speed trains, just air, auto, and regular trains. The final model was then used to forecast future travel without high-speed trains, and then with high-speed trains, in each case using the expected future trip times, costs and other conditions of travel.

A peer review panel of local, national, and international travel model and high-speed train experts reviewed and commented on the modeling assumptions, methodologies, and results during each stage of model development. A full description of the interregional model and the calibration process and the forecasts is available here and in the website Library.

How many people can be carried on a high-speed train?

Operating “trainsets” will have multiple cars and will be up to 1,300 feet long, depending on the type of train and the market demand. At peak travel times, trains can be lengthened, or trainsets can be connected, to operate as a single train. The high-speed train could be configured in many different ways either to maximize seating, which would provide seating for up to 1,300 passengers or to provide more space per passenger than a conventional airline seat and provide a café area and other amenities, in which case trains could carry around 950 passengers.

Will high-speed train travelers travel in comfort?

Passengers will be able to comfortably and safely stroll to a café car to purchase snacks and beverages. Seat restraints or belts will not be needed at any time. Laptop use will be allowed at any time. The precise configuration of seating and accommodation will depend upon market demand. With multiple cars, each trainset can provide different types of accommodation for different passenger markets. The same train can have business compartments for conferencing en route, theater-or-airline style seating, young family play areas, or even “Quiet Cars” where cell phones and loud computer programs are not allowed. Tables, power jacks, reliable cell phone service and video or audio entertainment can also be provided, depending on market demand.

How was the high-speed train fare structure determined for the ridership forecasts?

The Authority concluded that the capital costs of the high-speed train system would need to be largely publicly financed, regardless of the ticket prices for the high-speed train passengers. The Authority also “defined a practical approach to construct, operate, and finance an HST system that would yield solid financial returns to the state and provide transportation benefits to all Californians.” The fare structure used to produce the ridership and revenue forecasts used by the Authority was selected because it increased ridership (e.g., user benefits) while not losing significant passenger revenue, and therefore maximized the potential benefits of the system. Under this fare structure, HST fares were set to equal 50% of the average airfare (at the time of the analysis) for travel between San Francisco and Los Angeles. However, the HST system is expected to be priced based upon the distance traveled, as opposed to air transportation within California where shorter distance intercity trips are often charged substantially higher rates than the longer-distance trips between California’s major metropolitan regions. Higher high-speed train fares would actually increase system revenues, but would decrease total ridership and public benefits. Ultimately, it is very likely that fares will vary based on such factors as type of service (business, coach, express, skip-stop, etc.), time of day (peak, off-peak), advanced purchase, etc. – much like the airlines and high-speed trains in Europe and Asia operate.

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